Activity 1.1    Electoral Political Economy Analyses (EPEA)

The project will use the ECES-copyrighted EPEA analytical methodology to identify underlying factors, frameworks (formal and informal) and dynamics that shape stakeholder perceptions, motivations, values and ideas regarding electoral processes, with a focus on electoral integrity. EPEA identifies the main constraints, opportunities and concerns for promoting stability and democratic development. It examines the fundamental political, economic, cultural and social pillars of a given society, as well as all the structures, institutions and individuals within an electoral framework. EPEA provides critical insights into how best to steer national reform initiatives and democracy support actions, and how potential blockages or conflicts could affect conflict prevention and mitigation strategies. EPEA begins with a leading concern, question or hypothesis regarding the electoral process, and then explores its impact on political stability, electoral integrity, peace and democratic development. This project will delve deeply into formal and informal power centres that dictate the conduct and outcome of electoral processes in Kenya. EPEA will be adapted to the Kenyan context and will produce baseline data to feed into monitoring and evaluation, flash reports and long-term data harvesting tools to capture the drivers, sources and triggers of electoral conflict and violence in the run-up to the 2022 elections. EPEA will continue harvesting data concurrently with project implementation, which will also benefit the EU delegation in measuring the results of other EU-funded conflict prevention programmes.

Activity 1.2    Electoral Security Threat Assessment (ESTA)

ESTA  is an ECES-copyrighted stakeholder mapping activity that identifies and monitors localised conflicts and external threats affecting electoral and political scenarios in a given country. Through ESTA, regular reports are produced and shared with project beneficiaries, relevant electoral stakeholders, implementing organisations and the contracting authority. ESTA uses heat maps as well as interrelationship diagrams to add details to identified threats and engage in frequent monitoring of shifts in positions. It maps election conflict hotspots based on parameters including the number of causalities in the previous election/post-election violence; ethnoreligious configurations; reputation for violent clashes due to intra- or inter-party tensions; and divisions or factions that could heighten the risk of clashes.  In Kenya, ESTA will inform targeted project activities, generate hotspot maps and monitor triggers and escalation points. ESTA will engage with and inform actors from the “supply-side” of the state security structure, including the Ministry of Interior, IEBC, as well as non-state actors working to prevent and mitigate election-related conflict.

ESTA will be conducted in Kenya on a quarterly basis throughout the project, producing reports including hotspot and conflict maps that are made available to project beneficiaries, relevant electoral stakeholders, other implementing organisations, NSA electoral platforms and the contracting authority. 

Activity 1.3:   Mapping of relevant actors, including potential spoilers and also pro-democracy and pro-peace groups at the national, regional, county and local levels.

It is essential to obtain a better understanding of groups involved in ethnic violence, including key opinion leaders, potential spoilers and youth groups, to effectively design approaches to prevent and mitigate violence during the upcoming election cycle. The project will assist state actors and NSAs by mapping and identifying entry points for engaging positive movements in a structured way. The project will focus on the most fragile localities, supporting youth and others to engage in pro-peace messaging and join conflict early warning networks.

The results will inform the work of electoral stakeholders to formulate targeted activities in other fragile counties. It will also enable the project to support structured exchanges led by state and NSA actors, to promote a coordinated, effective and inclusive election conflict prevention strategy, including the involvement of youth as positive agents of change